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Is Iraq already an example of civil war?

Finding a way to head off civil war is at the heart of all the major initiatives - including the talks over a new constitution - in Iraq. But by most common political-science definitions of the term, "civil war" is already here. The academic thumbnail definition of a civil war is a conflict with at least 1,000 battlefield casualties, involving a national government and one or more nonstate actors fighting for power. The second part of the definition of a civil war is whether the national government is battling nonstate or other internal forces. A year ago it was common to hear Iraqi politicians say most of the fighting was resistance to US occupation, and would subside with a US military withdrawal. Today, few voice that view.

While there is still hope that Iraq can avoid going all the way down the same tragic road that ripped apart Lebanon, a growing number of political leaders and analysts are acknowledging that a de facto state of civil war is already here. What this means in practical terms, is that an immediate US withdrawal isn`t likely to bring peace to Iraq, say analysts. Nor is simply "staying the course," if it isn`t matched by a political peace treaty among the warring parties - a role that a new constitution, facing a midnight tonight deadline, could fill.

"It`s not a threat. It`s not a potential. Civil war is a fact of life there now," says Pavel Baev, head of the Center for the Study of Civil War at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway. He argues that until the nature of the conflict is accurately seen, good solutions cannot be found. "What`s happening in Iraq is a multidimensional conflict. There`s international terrorism, banditry, the major foreign military presence. But the civil war is the central part of it - the violent contestation for power inside the country."

While the US has lost 1,862 soldiers, getting an accurate casualty count beyond that is difficult. The Iraqi government and US military say they don`t keep figures on Iraqi troops or civilians killed. According to a website run by academics and peace activists, 24,865 Iraqi civilians were killed between March 2003 and March 2005. The report said that US-led forces killed 37 percent of the total.