If Huskies run fade route this season, they`re in for rocky times
If you`re a Husky football fan holding out hope your team will exceed the low expectations thrust its way this fall, here`s some bad news. According to a fairly unscientific study by Sports Illustrated writer Stewart Mandel, the Washington Huskies have been the most overrated college football team in the nation since 1990. Talk about piling on. Just when UW fans thought things were getting bad, they`re told that, hey, it wasn`t nearly as good as you thought before anyway. Mandel looked at every Associated Press preseason poll in the past 14 years, then counted how many times each team finished seven or more spots lower in the final AP poll of that year. Mandel, on SI.com, reports that Washington tops the list with eight such fades, followed by Notre Dame and USC with seven. The good news, of course, is you have to be fairly well regarded to even be listed in the AP preseason poll that often. The unfortunate news, however, is the current Husky football team couldn`t see the Top 25 rankings even if it was standing on top of Rick Neuheisel`s ego. So here`s the question that matters most this fall. Are the 2004 Huskies, the ones picked to finish seventh in the Pac-10 Conference, again overrated because the school`s size and tradition leads to some undeserved expectation that the football program is better than it really is? Clearly there`s not a lot of room below for this Husky squad. If these Dawgs aren`t as good as folks think, then, well, fire up the barbecue and get ready for some roasted Gilby. Frankly, I don`t know what to think. I can`t remember going into a football season with less of a clue as to how the Huskies might fare. Part of it has to do with the unsettled quarterback situation. Not only are the Huskies lacking a returning starter, they`re minus a clear-cut winner of the offseason derby to replace Cody Pickett. Is it a plus that there are three guys good enough to compete for the vacancy? Or a disaster that none stood out enough to make the choice obvious for coach Keith Gilbertson? So many questions, so few answers going into Sunday`s opener against Fresno State. How good is running back Kenny James? Are any of the young receivers ready to step up? Will this be the same defense that surrendered 54 points and 729 yards to Cal last year? Has the old toughness returned now that Neuheisel is gone, or is that brand of ball now passe in Pac-10 circles? Is there really improved depth, making for difficult decisions at many starting positions? Or just more guys of the same so-so caliber? And how far does chemistry and a team attitude take you? Husky players are talking about a better outlook this year, the strengthening of bonds and removal of so many distractions that hung over last year`s Neuheisel departure. But you`ll hear pretty much the same words from every team coming off a disappointing campaign. Things are better this time around. The new upperclassmen have a better attitude and more togetherness. Any disruptive force has been replaced by a team-first outlook. But all that is lip service for now. It`s the right approach, sure. But only when things get tough can the tough get going. And it hasn`t gotten tough yet for these Huskies. Wait `til Sunday. See what happens when Fresno State comes out and smacks them in the mouth a few times. Fresno State is no cupcake. The Bulldogs won nine games last year, including victories over Oregon State and UCLA. Yes, the same UCLA squad that beat Washington 46-16. Nearly the entire FSU team is back, which is why the Bulldogs are favored to win the Western Athletic Conference. This isn`t the middling Nevada squad that came into Husky Stadium last year and pulled off a huge upset. Fresno State beating Washington wouldn`t be a big stunner. But it would be a serious smackdown for UW fans hoping all this talk of a losing season is misguided. The Huskies are looking to make a statement right out of the gate. They don`t want that statement to be: ``We just got whacked by the WAC.`` So we`ll see what happens. It`ll be interesting to get a look at just what surprises Gilbertson has in store. The man is a good offensive football mind. He`s had time now to implement schemes better suited for his talent. The question figures to be just how much talent the Huskies have to work with. My guess is this is a 5-5 club heading into the Apple Cup. And Washington State, which opens Friday at New Mexico, also looks like about a 5-5 team. If that scenario takes place, the two state schools will head into their finale Nov. 20 in Pullman fighting for that sixth win required to be bowl eligible. Since the Pac-10 has arrangements with seven bowl games this year, any conference team with six wins figures to go somewhere. Even if it is just the Silicon Valley Classic or Las Vegas Bowl. Just getting to any bowl isn`t a bad goal for both rebuilding programs. But one word of warning for Husky fans. Just as overestimating the UW is apparently a tradition, so too is underestimating the Cougs, who were picked to finish fifth in this year`s preseason Pac-10 media poll. According to Mandel, WSU is tied for fourth among teams that have been most often underrated by AP voters since 1990. So it is that we go into the 2004 season with nobody expecting much of either the Huskies or Cougs. History says that is a familiar role for Washington State. But for the Dawgs? Maybe, for a change, it`s good to have nowhere to go but up.
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