How Would Economies React to a Japanese Bomb?

Here?s a theoretical scenario for you to contemplate: Japan, unnerved by North Korea?s having acquired nuclear weapons, decides to develop its own nuclear weapons program. The question here is not what other nations do militarily in response, but what the economic response would be in Asia, and indeed all around the world, to Tokyo?s attainment of the status of nuclear power. Japan?s economy, we mustn?t forget, is one of the largest in the world.

Would the economic effects of a Japanese bomb be more likely to start a war than the actual bombs themselves? That?s a good question, and given the ability of small conflicts to turn into larger conflicts, the likely answer is that yes, the economic fallout from a Japanese acquisition of nuclear weapons could start a war?but indirectly. More likely to start a nuclear war in Asia these days is some sort of stupid North Korean move that prompts one nation or other to attack it.

The question both diplomats and economists should ask themselves about northeast Asia these days is whether they are more afraid of North Korea having nukes or Japan. Japan is not considering getting nukes, but leaders there are encouraging a debate. If the North Koreans perceive, in debate, a threat, they might attack. Given that North Korea is a dictatorship with a cult of personality around its leader, the notion that a debate in Tokyo could be seen as threatening to Pyongyang is that much more believable.

                                 

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